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Designing an Energy Model for India and China for the Low-Carbon Transformation to 2050 - Assessing National Policies, Grids, and Modeling Regional Scenarios
Citation key hosenfeld_designing_2017
Author Hosenfeld, Hans and Krumm, Alexandra and Lawrenz, Linus and Lorenz, Luise and Wechmann, Benjamin and Xiong, Bobby and Burandt, Thorsten and Hainsch, Karlo and Löffler, Konstantin and Oei, Pao-Yu and von Hirschhausen, Christian
Pages 168
Year 2017
Address Berlin, Germany
Institution Technische Universität Berlin
Abstract At the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference (COP 21) held in Paris, India and China have both ratified their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). With the goal of transforming to a green and sustainable energy production and economy, India targets a 2030 reduction of its carbon intensity by 33\% to 35\% (MoEF 2015), China 60\% to 65\% (NDRC 2015) compared to 2005, respectively. With a total population of more than 2.7 billion (World Bank 2017c, 2017a) and emerging industry sectors, India and China’s energy roadmap will have a significant impact on the global low-carbon energy transformation. Hence, it is crucial to design a wholistic energy pathway towards 100\% renewables in 2050 which includes power, heat, as well as transportation sectors. For this purpose, regional data is assessed and implemented into the linear cost-optimizing model GENeSYS-MOD (Löffler et al. 2017). It calculates an optimized path towards an energy model based on geographic, demographic, economic assumptions while integrating technology specific parameters, such as operational lifetimes, timeslices efficiency and availability factors. To reduce complexity, India is segmented into ten and China into eight sub-regions and a transformation in five-year steps from 2015 to 2050 is simulated. Furthermore, endogenous grid simulation has been added to the existing model. Current model results show that a low-carbon energy transformation until 2050 is both technically achievable and economically feasible. Playing a significant role during the pathway to decarbonization, around 70\% of India’s and China’s 2050 power composition will be attributed to solar power, followed by wind generation (India 24\%, China 17\%) and hydropower (India 5\%, China 12\%). Concerning process (high) heat, India’s and China’s heavy reliance on fossil energy carriers, such as coal and gas will slowly fade out in favor of biomass (around 50\%) and power to heat (around 40\%). While India’s low heat is evenly divided between biomass, solar thermal and heat pump technologies, China mainly uses heat pump and a 10\% share of biomass for low heat in 2050. Looking at the transportation sectors, both passenger and freight slowly shift towards renewable technologies, such as hydrogen and electric based means of transit. Taking existing transmission and distribution (T\&D) losses into account, grid expansion is necessary for a transformation to 100\% renewables. Due to India’s present high T\&D losses of approximately 19.4\% (World Bank 2017b), the primary goal is a reduction to around 5\% in 2050. As for China, TND losses only account for 6.64\% (NEA and NDRC 2016). Based on a sensitivity analysis, existing and potential power lines for optimal grid expansion, meeting the demands of energy hungry regions such as China East are determined and evaluated. In addition to model specific analyses, this research provides a profound foundation on the political framework and existing policies by integrating information from India’s National Electricity Plan (GOI-Ministry of Power and CEA 2016b, 2016c) and China’s 13th Five Year Plan (CCCP 2015; NEA and NDRC 2016). Furthermore, social, political, and economic barriers of both countries are assessed while considering the nature of country specific governmental structures. Due to the present significance of China’s imminent Emission Trading System (ETS), key mechanisms, pilot programs and criticisms are examined.
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